Will the Houthis successfully target shipping by July 31, 2026?

ResolutionResolved YES

YES payout100¢

NO payout0¢

VenuePolymarket

Realized · 7-day hold−8%$100 paper stake

Polymarket36¢ → 33¢

Our position · YES36¢ → 33¢

Signal endedJul 22

Forecast updated

Jul 15 forecast

The Houthis are likely to strike Red Sea commercial shipping by July 31 because US naval forces focused on the Strait of Hormuz leave them operational freedom.

Recent early-July sinkings confirm Houthi operational capability. Iranian pressure for a second front combined with US naval distraction strongly favors a successful strike, offset only by declining shipping volumes and onboard armed security.

Points to YES

Houthis successfully sank two vessels in early July.
Houthis sank two commercial vessels, July 6 to 9
Iranian officials threatened Bab el-Mandeb closure.
Houthi official threatened Bab el-Mandeb strait closure, July 14
US naval assets diverted to active Hormuz conflict.
CENTCOM launched third round of strikes against Iran, July 12

Points to NO

Armed guards successfully repelled July 13 approach.
Armed security repelled 6-boat approach off Aden, July 13

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