US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?

ResolutionResolved YES

YES payout100¢

NO payout0¢

VenuePolymarket

Realized · 7-day hold+261%$100 paper stake

Polymarket22¢ → 80¢

Our position · YES22¢ → 80¢

Signal endedAug 5

Forecast updated

Jul 29 forecast

It is probable the ceasefire counts, because US strikes on Iran paused around July 24, anchoring the 14-day window by July 25 before July 31, though resolution hinges on rule interpretation.

The US stopped direct strikes on Iran around July 24. The rules say a 14-day pause counts if it starts by July 31, even if it ends later. That start date is July 25, well within the window. No strikes have been reported since, and diplomacy is active. The outlook is probable rather than certain, because the outcome depends on whether the adjudicator applies the literal anchor-only rule rather than requiring full 14-day completion by July 31.

Points to YES

US direct strikes on Iran paused after ~July 24, with no qualifying strikes reported July 25-29.
Evidence
The resolution rules explicitly allow the 14-day period to complete after the end date if anchored on or before it (deadline_governing_quote).
P5

Points to NO

A hidden or unreported strike between July 25-29 could reset the clock, though no credible reports exist.
Evidence

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