Will Luke Herdegen win the 2026 Secret Harbour state by-election?

ResolutionResolved YES

YES payout100¢

NO payout0¢

VenuePolymarket

Realized · held to resolution+150%$100 paper stake

Polymarket40¢ → 100¢

Our position · YES40¢ → 100¢

Signal endedAug 30

Forecast updated

Aug 29 forecast

Labor insiders were bracing for defeat after One Nation’s late surge, so a Herdegen victory is narrowly favored.

Late campaign reporting consistently placed One Nation alongside or ahead of Labor, with government figures preparing for a possible defeat and disaffected former Labor voters moving toward challengers. Secret Harbour’s housing and cost-of-living pressures suit One Nation’s campaign, while the Liberals appear to have lost ground. Herdegen is therefore narrowly favored, but Labor’s historically strong position and friendlier Greens preferences leave a credible path for Georgia Tree to retain the seat.

Points to YES

Labor’s own preparations for a possible loss indicate that Herdegen’s challenge extends beyond public campaign optimism and could translate into a winning count.
On 28 August, Labor sources were reported as bracing for defeat while still hoping Georgia Tree could retain the seat narrowly.
One Nation’s surge among economically pressured outer-suburban voters gives Herdegen a plausible route to finish ahead of Labor.
On 29 August, ABC reported that One Nation’s support had surged and identified Secret Harbour’s young families, housing pressures and cost-of-living concerns as favorable conditions for a breakthrough.
Movement away from both major parties can lift Herdegen’s primary vote while weakening the Liberal candidate who might otherwise block his path to the final count.
On 26 August, a reported opinion poll found One Nation taking support from both Labor and Liberal.

Points to NO

Labor begins with a substantial inherited advantage, so Herdegen needs an unusually large swing rather than merely a modest protest vote.
At the 2025 election, Labor won the final two-party count by 61.5% to 38.5%, despite a 19.8-point swing against it.
Preference flows could rescue Labor even if Herdegen leads on first preferences because Greens support favors Labor and conservative preferences may not consolidate tightly behind One Nation.
On 12 August, Malcolm Mackerras argued that Greens preferences strongly favored Labor while Liberal and One Nation preferences were unlikely to exchange tightly.
The absence of a reliable electorate-wide poll leaves the reported One Nation lead vulnerable to sampling error and campaign chatter.
By 27 August, no electorate-wide poll had emerged, while a small early-voting straw poll favoring One Nation came from a method that had produced large errors in 2025.

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