0 ships transit Hormuz on any date by July 31?

ResolutionResolved YES

YES payout100¢

NO payout0¢

VenuePolymarket

Realized · 7-day hold−39%$100 paper stake

Polymarket20¢ → 12¢

Our position · YES20¢ → 12¢

Signal endedJul 21

Forecast updated

Jul 14 forecast

PortWatch will very likely publish a zero-transit day for the Strait of Hormuz by July 31 because dual blockades have halted commercial ship tracking broadcasts entirely.

Observed July 13 AIS blackout strongly indicates PortWatch zero

Points to YES

Commercial vessels ceased AIS broadcasts, July 12
Zero commercial vessels broadcasted AIS, July 13

Points to NO

Local vessels retain potential AIS broadcasts
Some local vessels potentially moving without AIS

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