Will Luke Herdegen win the 2026 Secret Harbour state by-election?

ResolutionResolved YES

YES payout100¢

NO payout0¢

VenuePolymarket

Realized · held to resolution+222%$100 paper stake

Polymarket31¢ → 100¢

Our position · YES31¢ → 100¢

Signal endedAug 30

Forecast updated

Aug 28 forecast

Labor is bracing for a One Nation loss amid reports Herdegen leads, so his Secret Harbour victory is favored but far from guaranteed.

Herdegen enters election day with converging signs of a substantial One Nation surge: Labor is preparing for defeat, informed observers report him ahead, and voter interviews reveal deep dissatisfaction with the major parties. He still must overcome Labor’s commanding result at the last election and a preference structure that could help Georgia Tree close a primary-vote deficit. The absence of a reliable electorate-wide poll leaves meaningful uncertainty, but the strongest late evidence favors a Herdegen victory.

Points to YES

Labor’s preparations for losing the seat indicate that campaign intelligence is pointing toward Herdegen, making his victory more plausible than public caution alone would suggest.
On 28 August, the Australian Financial Review reported that the Cook government was bracing to lose Secret Harbour to Herdegen.
Cost pressures and weakening major-party loyalty give One Nation a receptive electorate, creating a plausible path for Herdegen to attract former Labor and Liberal voters.
On 26 August, interviewed Secret Harbour voters highlighted housing costs, living expenses and dissatisfaction with the major parties, with several describing weaker party loyalty.
Early-voter interviews place Herdegen well ahead, supporting the reported surge even though the small, non-representative sample limits confidence in its size.
Reported on 27 August, a first-day straw poll of 120 early voters had One Nation far ahead of Labor and Liberal, while a separate outlet found a similar pattern.

Points to NO

Labor begins from a large electoral advantage, so Herdegen needs an unusually large shift rather than merely a modest protest vote to win.
At the 2025 election, Labor won Secret Harbour comfortably after preferences while One Nation received only 8.4% of first preferences.
Preference flows could allow Labor to overtake Herdegen even if he finishes ahead on first preferences, keeping the contest meaningfully uncertain.
On 12 August, election analyst Malcolm Mackerras argued that Greens preferences, weak Liberal–One Nation preference exchange and ballot positions favored Labor.
No reliable electorate-wide poll confirms the apparent Herdegen lead, leaving late campaign reports vulnerable to sampling error and selective information.
On 27 August, Poll Bludger reported that no electorate-level Secret Harbour poll had emerged and cautioned that the available early-voter exercise had weak precedent.

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